MarketWatch (Dow Jones) ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Worst job losses in almost three decades expected
Manufacturing, services activity also headed lower, forecasts say
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
01 Dec 08
Economists at IHS Global Insight have a particular gloomy outlook for nonfarm payrolls, and are looking for a "huge" decline of 370,000, despite a boost of about 27,000 from Boeing workers returning from strikes.
"Unemployment insurance claims have climbed rapidly as businesses are shedding labor, and hiring is anemic," Global Insight analysts wrote in a research note. "Retail employment is likely to fall very sharply since the usual seasonal uptick in hiring will be muted -- translating into a steep seasonally adjusted decline."
Observer (UK) Bank urged to cut rates to lowest level since 1939
By Heather Stewart
01 Dec 08
Minutes from the last meeting of the Bank's monetary policy committee revealed that an even larger rate cut, of 2 percentage points or more, was discussed. Howard Archer, UK economist at consultancy Global Insight, said: 'The minutes left the door open for a big cut, and since then the economy's deteriorated further, and inflation fell back faster than expected in October.'
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Why Big 3 can't follow steel's path
Bankruptcy won't help auto industry the way it helped steel
By Len Boselovic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
01 Dec 08
We certainly can't afford to have another million or million and a half people to be out of work next year. That's where we would see this thing going if they don't get any money," said George Magliano, an auto industry analyst with IHS Global Insight.
...."The issue today is that business got so much worse that the plans they put in place do not work. With sales falling through the floor, those plans don't make sense anymore," Mr. Magliano said.
Press Association (UK) Mortgage lending plummets
01 Dec 08
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "An extremely weak set of Bank of England mortgage approvals and lending data suggest that house prices still have a long way to fall. Housing market activity is exceptionally low compared to long-term norms."
Press Association (US) Bank set to cut rates again
01 Dec 08
But Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, is expecting a 1% cut. He said: "A 50 basis point interest rate cut from 3% to 2.5% seems the absolute minimum that the Bank of England will deliver on 4 December, and we believe that there is a very strong chance that the MPC will slash rates by a further 100 basis points and take them down to 2%."
Rocky Mountain News Economic slump puts brakes on luxury-car sales
Sales for top-end autos in U.S. fell 30% in October
By Kate Linebaugh, The Wall Street Journal
01 Dec 08
Among luxury cars, "we suspect that November was just as bad as October because people on Wall Street and in the banks are still losing their jobs," said Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Global Insight, a research firm in Lexington, Mass.
The Boston Globe Boston auto show reflects green push, somber industry
By Bill Griffith
01 Dec 08
John Wolkonowicz, senior auto analyst for North America for IHS Global Insight in Lexington, said he expects the show to be well attended. "People are looking for cheap entertainment so the show should be a success," he said.
But looking doesn't necessarily translate to sales.
"We're at a low point in consumer confidence where nothing is going to sell cars," said Wolkonowicz. "People have lost home equity. They're concerned about their jobs. They've lost money in the market or their retirement funds. They're not wanting to make long-term purchases."
The New York Times Squeezing the Most From a Stimulus Plan
By Louis Uchitelle
01 Dec 08
A stimulus devoted entirely to tax breaks, in contrast, would require the entire $1 trillion in rebates or lower taxes, and probably more, to create those jobs, in part because taxpayers getting this windfall might not spend all of it.
“The multiplier effect is clearly less than $1,” said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist for Global Insight, “and perhaps as low as 30 cents if only some of the tax break is spent.”
The Wall Street Journal THE WEEK AHEAD
Economy
Jobs Picture Looks Dim Absent Any GDP Growth
By Brenda Cronin
01 Dec 08
For 2009, "the best-case scenario is 8.2% or 8.3% unemployment, but there's an increasing risk that we could go up to 9%," said IHS Global Insight Chief Economist v. For November, IHS Global Insight forecasts an unemployment rate of 6.8% and a payroll decline of 370,000.
The Wall Street Journal Euro-Zone Confidence Plunges, Bolstering Rate-Cut Forecasts
By Paul Hannon
01 Dec 08
"The further plunge in economic sentiment in November bodes ill for investment, employment and consumer spending across the euro zone over the coming months, and heightens fears that the region's recession will be deep and prolonged," said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight.
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