Daily Mail (UK) £60,000 a year: That's how much the recession is costing every family
By Sam Fleming
31 Dec 08
Economist Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight predicted house prices will tumble another 15 per cent next year, as the overall economy contracts by 2.7 per cent.
Financial Express (INdia) Falling sales, weak lending put rate cut pressure on ECB
31 Dec 08
M3 money supply, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, slowed to 7.8% from a year earlier as demand for the most liquid assets retreated. Economists had expected the rate to decelerate to 8.5% from 8.7% in October, according to the median of 28 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. “The recent steady downward trend suggests that tighter credit conditions are impacting more,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at Global Insight Inc. in London. Today’s reports were the latest to suggest the euro-area’s recession deepened this quarter. Consumer confidence fell to a 15-year low in November, while manufacturing and services industries contracted in December at the fastest pace in at least a decade
Financial Times (UK) Eurozone lending growth comes to standstill
By Gerrit Wiesmann in Frankfurt
31 Dec 08
Howard Archer, at Global Insight, said loan trends and "evidence that inflationary trends are now receding sharply" led him to expect the ECB would cut its main rate by 50 basis points in January and by a further full point during 2009.
International Herald Tribune Bottom in the U.S. could be far off
31 Dec 08
“Housing dragged down the markets this summer,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, told the New York Times. “Now it’s the economy and financial markets that are dragging down housing.”
San Francisco Chronicle Big drop in October home prices
By James Temple
31 Dec 08
"I think we'll see worse numbers - a lot worse numbers - in November and December," said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight, an Englewood, Colo., consulting firm. "They're not really fully capturing the full effect of the breakdown of financial markets that happened after Sept. 15."
....S&P predicts the index will decline another 5 or 6 percent and will bottom out in late 2009. Newport expects it to drop about 15 percent more over the next 12 months.
Foreclosures remain the main culprit in declining prices, as companies taking back homes slash prices to whatever level is necessary to move them, Newport said. The pace has slowed only slightly in recent months, despite the government throwing billions of bailout dollars at the problem and testing many strategies to encourage banks to modify troubled loans and keep people in their homes.
Seattle Times U.S. home prices post 18% annual drop in October; Seattle down 10.2%
By J.W Elphinstone, The Associated Press
31 Dec 08
"The numbers are getting worse. And I think they will get quite a bit worse over the next two months because housing demand has plunged since the market went into turmoil," said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight.
Underscoring that point, other figures released Tuesday showed consumer confidence hit an all-time low in December, dropping unexpectedly in the face of layoffs and deteriorating markets for housing, stocks and other investments.
Seoul Times (South Korea) America
US Economy's Gloom Expected to Begin Lifting by Late '09
31 Dec 08
By the end of March, the economy, as measured by GDP, will shrink another 4 percent on an annualized basis, estimates IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting concern in Lexington, Mass. By the second quarter, the annualized rate of decline will slow to 1 percent, according to Global Insight. Then the 2economy will grow by 1 percent in the third quarter and by 2 to 3 percent in the final quarter of the year.
"You can't stop the economy from contracting in a big way in early 2009," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
St. Louis Post-Dispatch Consumer confidence sinks even lower
By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis, BLOOMBERG NEWS
31 Dec 08
"The deterioration going on right now in the labor market made people feel much worse," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. "If people are worried about their jobs, they are not going to spend. That is extremely negative."
Stuttgarter Zeitung (Germany) Große Firmen bekommen nur schwer Geld
Ifo: Kreditvergabe der Banken wird restriktiver - Analyst: Konditionen werden sich 2009 wohl nicht weiter verschlechtern
31 Dec 08
Finanzexperten sehen darin Warnzeichen für die Konjunktur. "Die strengere Kreditvergabe stellt eine wachsende Bedrohung für die ohnehin schon kämpfenden Volkswirtschaften dar", sagte Analyst Howard Archer von IHS Global Insight. Aus Sorge vor einer Kreditklemme werde die EZB ihren Leitzins von derzeit 2,5 Prozent im kommenden Jahr weiter senken.
The Times (UK) General Motors offers interest-free loans in return for $6bn bailout
By Christine Seib
31 Dec 08
Brian Bethune, chief US financial economist at IHS Global Insight, said that although the cash boost was not enough to kick start the motor industry alone, it was “one of the building blocks that were needed to break the terrible momentum”.
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