Good Crops Still on the Way

Crop conditions continued to indicate that U.S. soybean yields will be above trend with a yield estimate of 42.2 bushels per acre and a total crop of 2.7 billion bushels. The soybean crop, however, is further away from maturity and still needs rainfall.

Cotton crop conditions continue to improve and the 2007 crop is now estimated at 17.2 million bales. Improvement in crop conditions in Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Tennessee has driven much of the increase in production estimates.

But some areas are clearly showing stress, particularly in the southeastern United States and the eastern edges of the Corn Belt. Ohio, North Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida are showing clear signs of stress. Consider the difference in southeast soybean yields and corn yields as a percentage of trend. Corn is estimated at 91% of trend, but soybeans are estimated at only 76% of trend in Alabama, reflecting worsening drought conditions. If the drought continues to worsen and spread, there is still potential for significant damage to the soybean crop.