World Industry Service Forecasts Outlook for 33 New-Generation Technologies

The study consisted of two components: a comparative study across all 33 technologies and an in-depth exploration of a single-technology group. The comparative study was conducted on a stylized model framework across all of the selected sectors, and was designed to provide an unbiased broader comparative perspective across the full spectrum of technologies. In contrast, the second component investigates in-depth the particular characteristics unique to the adoption of that specific technology.

A total of 33 specific NewGen technologies were identified for the study, broadly grouped into 14 specific technology sectors, which in turn fell into five broader technology groupings, namely: IT/Telecom, Healthcare, Auto and Transportation, Energy, and Industrial Applications.

NewGen technology diffusion into a society was stylized as consisting of four specific phases. The early phase is slow and limited adoption by “innovators,” which is followed by rapid and accelerating phase of adoption by “imitators.” This is then followed by an extended and decelerating adoption by “laggards”; and finally by the left-over population, as the rate of adoption tends to zero with overall adoption stabilizing at a near-steady level over the long term.

NewGen Technology Sectors

33 Technologies in 14 Sector Aggregates

Each technology was characterized by its own unique adoption path, based on expert views and historic adoption patterns of comparable technology. Further, the influence of cultural differences was also incorporated as defining regional adoption patterns. Five specific empirically derived indices (Power Distance Index, Masculinity Index, Individualism Index, Uncertainty Avoidance index, Income Inequality Index) were used to differentiate such cultural differences. For instance, Japan with a high Masculinity Index of 92 is formulated to have a significantly more rapid and high-volume of innovators than South Korea with an index of 39. Conversely, in the diffusion in the second or imitator phase in South Korea outpaces that of Japan.

Global NewGen revenues estimated currently at US$1.2 trillion are forecast to double by 2010, and then increase six folds by 2025. Premium pricing for NewGen products adds to the surge in revenues in the near term. Growth forecasts among the NewGen technologies during 2007 to 2015 range from 15% to 26%, well above the 6.4% average for manufacturing growth. Consequently, NewGen’s share in manufacturing expands from 4.3% in 2006 to 8.7% by 2015.

The largest revenue producer at present is IT/Communications, accounting for more than half of NewGen revenues, and is dominated by new-generation memory and non-memory semi-conductors. However, medical applications have the fastest and sustained growth outlook, and are slated to take the lead by 2015 and grow 10 folds by 2025, contributing US$ 2.7 trillion annual revenue globally. NewGen medical and healthcare revenues that presently account for 23% of all NewGen revenue are forecast to grow to account for more than 40% of NewGen income by 2025. Overall dominance of the medical services results from the large and fast-growing sector in the United States and Western Europe. In contrast, in the Asian region, NewGen IT/Communications and industrial applications have the brightest prospects arising from the region’s relative advantage in manufacturing rather than services sectors.