by Sharon Fisher
On August 4, President Vaclav Klaus appointed a new Czech cabinet under the leadership of former interior minister Stanislav Gross, backed by the Social Democrats (CSSD), along with two junior partners: the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Freedom Union (US-DEU). The CSSD empowered Gross to form a new cabinet after former prime minister and CSSD chairman Vladimir Spidla resigned based on the party’s humiliating defeat in the June elections to the European Parliament. Nonetheless, after weeks of political bargaining, there are surprisingly few changes in the new government, which consists of the same three parties and many of the same ministers as the outgoing cabinet—and will face all of the same problems.
There is much uncertainty about the road ahead for the youthful Gross, particularly given the razor-thin majority that was enjoyed by the Spidla government, with just 101 seats in the 200-member lower house. Initially, it appeared that the formation of a cabinet with the three parties from the outgoing government would be impossible, given that two rebel deputies who quit the US-DEU in March 2004 but remained in the party’s parliamentary caucus said they would leave altogether after the fall of Spidla’s cabinet. A failure to recreate the Spidla cabinet would have forced the CSSD to cooperate with the opposition Communists, an option that almost everyone wanted to avoid. Gross finally got a break after a former deputy from the opposition Civic Democrats (ODS) gave his support and one of the two US-DEU rebels quit the parliament, allowing for his replacement with an alternate who favors the continuation of the status quo.
Even then, it remained unclear whether the new cabinet would have the support of all 70 CSSD deputies, many of whom believe that the CSSD has already given in too much to its center-right coalition partners during the past two years, causing it to ignore its electoral program and thereby lose its voter base. Several deputies were angered that they were not consulted on the formation of a cabinet under Gross and insisted that the new coalition agreement must be on the CSSD’s own terms. Nonetheless, a leftist-oriented government would be unacceptable to the two junior coalition partners, particularly the US-DEU, which is currently struggling to survive. Despite those obstacles, by July 23, Gross had obtained the signatures of 101 deputies promising to back his new government, and he was named by Klaus as premier designate three days later. On August 2, the three parties signed a new coalition agreement.
Klaus appointed the new cabinet even though the personnel changes did not go as far as he would have liked. In fact, of the 18 posts, only 6 are filled with individuals who did not serve in the previous cabinet. There has been some reshuffling among the various positions, and the cabinet has one additional member. The CSSD now has 12 of the 18 posts in the cabinet, up from the previous 11, with 3 of those going to nonparty members. While the CSSD made changes in the post of prime minister, interior minister, and health-care minister, the heads of six of the party’s ministries were maintained (including Finance, Industry and Trade, Labor, Education, Agriculture, and Culture). In addition, the CSSD took over the Local Development Ministry from the US-DEU and appointed a new minister without portfolio. The party also named the unaffiliated Martin Jahn, who previously headed the CzechInvest agency that works to attract foreign direct investment, as deputy prime minister for the economy. The KDU-CSL has made no changes to its lineup, retaining the oversight of the Foreign Affairs, Environment, and Transport ministries. Meanwhile, the US-DEU kept the IT Ministry but swapped its two other posts with the CSSD, taking over the Defense and Justice ministries. As for Spidla, he will be sent to Brussels this fall as the Czech Republic’s representative on the European Commission. While that post allows him a graceful exit from the domestic political scene, many Czechs criticized the replacement of current commissioner Pavel Telicka, who has gained an excellent reputation within the EU.
From the time of its appointment, the new government will have 30 days to ask the parliament for a vote of confidence and to approve its new policy platform, both of which are expected to take place on August 24. Despite the continued negative attitudes of certain CSSD members, we expect that the new cabinet will be approved without too much further anguish. Nonetheless, considerable uncertainty remains, particularly in light of the need for the new cabinet to continue pushing forward with reforms, especially in the area of fiscal policy. If the CSSD’s declining popularity in recent years is based purely on its backing for reforms, it is difficult to imagine that the party will ever manage to regain support while in coalition with two center-right partners. If, on the other hand, the CSSD’s support dropped due to Spidla’s lackluster leadership, then the party does have a chance to regain ground under Gross, who has long been one of the most popular politicians in the country. Nonetheless, Gross does not have much time to renew the CSSD’s support, given the upcoming elections to the Senate and the regional administration, both of which are scheduled for November 5-6.
If the new cabinet fails to gain parliamentary support later this month, or if it falters again based on poor results in this fall’s elections, the Czech Republic may be faced with more political instability. In such a case, the ODS, which has seen its popularity surge in recent years, is waiting eagerly in the wings, with calls for early parliamentary elections. Despite expectations of continuous bickering within the new government over economic reforms, the prospect of early parliamentary elections is the one threat that may keep the Gross cabinet together through the end of its term in 2006, since it is an option that the current ruling parties would like to avoid at all costs.
