by Nader Habibi
Iran’s next presidential election is scheduled for June 17. Unlike the earlier elections, which attracted a small number of candidates, more than 15 hopefuls from both factions of the Islamic regime have already announced their candidacies for the upcoming election. Several unique features of the current presidential campaign have set it apart from the previous elections. For one thing, the candidates are paying a lot more attention to economic issues, whereas in previous elections political concerns were at the forefront. Mostafa Moin, a former minister of higher education and one of the leading pro-reform candidates, has pledged to continue the economic reforms of the past eight years. Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister, has not offered any details about the economic policies that he might initiate, except that economic development will be one of his top priorities. While he is more identified with the conservative faction, he is running as an independent candidate.
Most conservative candidates have so far focused their discussion of economic issues on targets rather than specific policies. Ali Larijani, the former director of national radio and television, has promised to raise people’s purchasing power by 40% during his term. He and several other candidates in both factions have spoken out about the need to fight the mounting incidents of bureaucratic corruption. While the media routinely report on individual cases of corruption, this is the first time that the issue is being discussed by political candidates. Some candidates are promising highly unrealistic and sometimes simplistic economic policies. One candidate has promised to create 1.2 million new jobs in four years, which is very ambitious under current economic conditions. Another candidate has promised to fight poverty by paying a monthly allowance equivalent to US$55 to all adult Iranians older than 18 years.
Aside from the candidates identified with the reformist or conservative factions, the name of one man is frequently raised in political circles as the candidate with the best chance of victory. He is former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, who is currently the head of Iran’s Expediency Council, an appointed body with the final word on disputes between branches of the government. Rafsanjani is known as a pragmatic leader who initiated several economic reforms during his eight-year presidency (1988–96). While some of these reform initiatives, such as exchange-rate unification, were abandoned because of political considerations, they were later adopted by the Khatami government. Most Iranian businessmen favor a Rafsanjani victory because they believe he can carry out much-needed economic reforms and possibly resolve the country's political disputes with the United States. Indeed, he seems to be a compromise candidate for both reformists and conservatives, and as such has a good chance of gaining the support of both factions for any programs. Furthermore, he has enough political strength to neutralize the conservatives and gain parliamentary support for his policies.
Overall, the economic agendas of Iran’s presidential candidates remain vague, and it might be several weeks before the serious candidates clarify their economic programs. The election could have a positive impact on the economy, though, by ending the deliberate anti-reform policies of the current parliament and the resulting policy uncertainties. The conservative majority in the parliament has deliberately rejected several economic policies of the Khatami government in the past 12 months, and most analysts believe these actions are primarily motivated by political concerns. By frustrating Khatami's economic policies, the conservatives hope to reduce the reformist camp's popularity and convince voters that the reformists cannot deliver. These steps have had an adverse effect on investor confidence in recent months, as reflected in the recent decline of the Tehran stock market index (TEPEX). Since the presidential election will most likely be won by either a compromise candidate such as Rafsanjani or a conservative candidate, the parliamentary sabotage of economic programs will likely end. Some of the populist but highly damaging economic policies that have been approved by the new parliament, such as the price freeze on basic commodities and the forced reduction of interest rates, should also be suspended once the conservatives force the reformists out of the executive branch.
