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Canadian Government Releases 2007 Planting Intentions

25 Apr 07

On April 24, the Canadian government released the results of its late-March planting intentions survey. The findings were mostly in line with previous Global Insight projections, although wheat area came in lower and corn, canola, and oats came in higher.

On April 24, 2007, the Canadian government released the results of its late-March survey of growers' planting intentions for 2007. The survey results are consistent with the current economic environment and Global Insight's most recent forecast. Canola, barley, oats, and corn area appear to be on the rise, while wheat, flax, and summer fallow are moving lower. Strong commodity prices and the expectation of adequate moisture are causing producers to cut summer fallow area by 2.7 million acres, or 33% from the 2006 level.

Canola area is estimated to expand to a record 14.7 million acres (up 11.6%) across the prairies, with Saskatchewan reporting the greatest increase—up 1.0 million acres to 7.4 million, also a record level. Global Insight had projected 2007 canola area to be up 9% to 14.5 million acres. Nearly half of the increase in canola was offset by decreases in flax seedings. Nationally, flaxseed area is expected to drop 650,000 acres to 1.43 million acres. Global Insight had predicted flaxseed area would fall to 1.42 million acres in its most recent forecast. Canola prices are up nearly 40% compared with year-earlier levels, while the Canadian board price for most wheat varieties is flat.

Canadian Acreage Intentions for 2007
(Acres, thousands)	2006	2007	Level	Percent
			Change	Change
Winter Wheat	1,763	1,729	-34	-2
Spring Wheat	20,273	17,080	-3,194	-19
Durum Wheat	4,350	4,950	600	12
All Wheat	26,387	23,759	-2,628	-11
Oats	4,751	5,682	931	16
Barley	9,540	10,812	1,272	12
Fall Rye	361	307	-54	-18
Flaxseed	2,080	1,430	-650	-45
Canola	13,276	14,831	1,555	10
Corn for Grain	2,786	3,511	725	21
Soybeans	3,059	2,931	-128	-4
Dry Peas	3,485	3,565	80	2
Total Planted	65,725	66,827	1,103	2

Summer Fallow	10,710	8,045	-2,665	-33
Total Area	76,435	74,872	-1,562	-2
Data from March 31, 2007 survey of intended plantings

Canadian wheat area is expected to drop 11%, or 2.6 million acres overall; durum is up by 600,000 acres, offsetting an even larger decline in spring wheat. Given the timing of the survey and the damage that occurred to the U.S. winter wheat crop the following week, some acreage may shift back to wheat, but the general picture will still portray significantly lower wheat area for 2007.

Feed grain area was up for most crops. Corn led the charge, up 21% to 3.51 million acres. Corn area in the east is expected to rise 25% (Global Insight had predicted a 19% rise). Oats and barley were up 16% and 12%, respectively. Soybean area dropped only 4%, as much of the increase in corn area came from lower barley and wheat acreage in the east. The planting intentions figures imply that total area in the east will increase 0.5%, while area in the west will increase 1.3%, or 740,000 acres. These increases are less than predicted by Global Insight prior to the report.

by Stewart Ramsey

Agriculture Markets Analysis and Forecasts

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