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Demand for Cars and Trucks to Quadruple at Current Trends by 2035
"Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable?"
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Waltham, MA 17 June 08 - Global Insight, the world's leading company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, has just released a white paper exploring the potential future demand for vehicles to 2035, along with the potential for known transport technologies to reduce the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions that would result from this growth. This white paper, authored by Philip Gott, Global Insight's director of Automotive Consulting, also identifies actions that should be taken to mitigate the impact of this huge growth in the car and truck fleet.
The white paper, "Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable?" raises the possibility that the number of cars and trucks on the road could nearly quadruple to 3 billion by 2035, as a result of increased prosperity in all regions of the world. This represents nearly four times the demand for physical space, raw materials and fuel that currently exists, and up to four times the output of toxic and climate-changing emissions.
While most projections have the size of the car and truck fleet growing from an estimated 800 million today to 1.6 billion by 2050, Gott warns that, "while the sheer numbers are staggering and consequences boggle the mind, a good case can be made for higher numbers based on expected economic growth." There is a strong historical correlation between per capita income, population and the number of cars and trucks on the road. According to current trends, by 2035 the growth in national economies will bring per capita GDP in every region of the world to above $5,000, which is accepted as the minimum to trigger an increase in the motorization rate.
"Smaller, lighter vehicles and existing advances in powertrain technology can help minimize the impact of more vehicles on the road by reducing CO2 and fuel consumption by about 40% and 50%, respectively," states Gott, but he adds, "Clearly, non-conventional solutions are needed."
Possible solutions examined in the white paper include:
- Vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells;
- Creation of energy conversions (fuel to electricity, for example) on a large scale;
- Adoption of cogeneration principles to make the best use of all energy;
- Minimizing the number of conversions from one energy form to another (e.g. conversion of electricity to hydrogen gas, then to compressed gas or liquid, and back again);
- Using the least energy intensive vehicle for any given task.
To obtain a copy of the white paper, "Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable?" or for more information, please visit: www.globalinsight.com/sustainablemobility.
Contacts:
Philip G. Gott, Dir., Consulting, Global Insight Automotive Group
781.301.9141 (philip.gott@globalinsight.com)
Jim Dorsey, Sr. Mgr. Global Insight Media Relations
781.301.9069, (jim.dorsey@globalinsight.com)
About Global Insight's Automotive Group
Global Insight's Automotive Group is comprised of 115 analysts located in 12 offices in eight countries across three continents. Collectively, the Automotive Group has over 650 years of experience working in the automotive industry, many with previous experience in analytical, planning, engineering, and management positions at over 40 different vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and automotive consulting and information companies.
Global Insight's automotive analysts and consultants are dedicated to providing superior-quality information, analysis, forecasts, and advisory services to organizations involved with the automotive industry. They provide understanding of the market forces and trends through the provision of reliable, timely, and accurate intelligence and assessments, in supporting clients in the development of more effective business strategies and the achievement of better financial results.
About Global Insight
Global Insight, Inc. (http://www.globalinsight.com/) is a privately held company that brought together the two most respected economic information companies in the world, DRI and WEFA. Global Insight provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. The company has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance, and government with revenues in excess of $105 million, over 675 employees and 25 offices in 14 countries covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
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