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Election 2008: Iran Kicks Off Muted Parliamentary Ballot
14 Mar 08
Iran today kicked off muted parliamentary elections; the mass disqualifications of reformists create a far-from-level playing field in a contest that pits hard-liners clustered around President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad against more pragmatic conservatives.
Global Insight Perspective | | Significance | Reformists, initially buoyed by the country’s mounting economic troubles, are instead facing the prospect of a battering at the hands of conservative hard-liners. The reformist camp, burdened under the weight of mass disqualification and savaged by attacks by hard-liners, has failed to gain the initiative. | Implications | Iran’s newly elected lawmakers, whether they are of the conservative or the pragmatic conservative variety, will be expected to address the country’s mounting economic troubles. However, with regard to the country’s controversial nuclear policy, the elections will herald no significant shift in course. | Outlook | Although the parliamentary elections have shone the torch on Iran’s mounting economic troubles, there are scant alternatives to the current status quo. Iranians who relish the prospect of a real contest will have to wait for next year’s more decisive presidential contest. |
The Main Issues The economy—the main gripe of ordinary Iranians—has aroused passions in an otherwise lacklustre campaign. Politicians of all stripes have promised to prioritise Iran’s mounting economic woes, which has seen inflation skyrocket to over 20% under President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s tenure. Ahmedinejad’s core constituents, typically lower middle class Iranians, who were earmarked as the main recipients of Iran’s oil wealth, have also been stung by the steep rise in the price of basic foodstuffs. The president's critics blame his populist economic promises—including grand infrastructure development projects—for stoking inflation. In the lead-up to today’s election, which coincides with the Iranian New Year celebrations, the government in characteristic fashion threw more money at the problem, eschewing fiscal discipline for the sake of securing the support of the electorate. By lowering tariffs on some imported food and clothes items and instructing the agriculture ministry to distribute eggs and chicken at even lower rates, Ahmedinejad is hoping to reduce the burden on poorer Iranians, who also happen to be his core constituents. The Islamic Republic's glaring economic troubles—the main chink in Ahmedinejad’s armour—were not adequately capitalised on by the president’s reformist opponents, who, from the outset, were burdened by the mass disqualifications of their candidates. Reformist lawmakers were also accused of sidelining with Iran’s “external enemies”, a damaging accusation, which comes on the back of a fresh round of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic. With the reformist left on the back foot, the campaign largely pitted hard-line conservatives against a more moderate strain of Iranian conservatives, who include the following; - Having challenged President Ahmedinejad at the 2005 presidential elections, the mayor of the capital, Tehran, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, has experience on his side; his record as mayor, a springboard for the presidency, also places him in an advantageous position to launch a fresh challenge to the incumbent president. Should more pragmatic conservatives make inroads at today’s contest, Qalibaf’s chances of mounting a challenge to Ahmedinejad will be strengthened. Although Qalibaf has been coy in revealing his presidential aspirations, he has intensified his attacks against Ahmedinejad’s economic performance. However, Qalibaf has stayed silent on Iran’s contested nuclear policy, although his tone and style is more moderate than that of the bellicose premier.
- Iran’s former nuclear point man, Ali Larijani, who was unceremoniously dropped by Ahmedinejad for favouring a less-confrontational approach, has been replaced by staunch loyalist Saeed Jalili. Despite his departure as nuclear envoy, Larijani retained favour with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, much to the discomfort of Ahmedinejad, whose relations with Iran’s chief power-broker came under strain because of the president's energy policies. Although Khamenei has come out in favour of Ahmedinejad, gains by so-called pragmatic conservatives could facilitate a shift in the supreme leader’s support, to the detriment of the sitting president's aspirations of re-election come next year.
- As a former chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mohsen Rezai is steeped in the country’s revolutionary heritage, and will be more difficult to brush off as a Western stooge. Rezai served as commander of the IRGC between 1981 and 1997, with particular influence over the Quds Brigade, the IRGC’s foreign wing, which has been designated a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department. Rezai, who is a close ally of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, now serves as secretary of the State Expediency Council. Rezai describes himself a “new rightist”, whose roots in Iran’s revolutionary institutions provide him with the relevant pedigree to cause real damage to Ahmedinejad.
Outlook and Implications With the Iranian political arena becoming all the more constrained under President Ahmedinejad’s tenure, the choices on offer at today’s parliamentary contest are far from inspiring. Despite the plethora of challenges facing ordinary Iranians—chiefly the rising costs of foodstuffs, rent hikes and stubborn unemployment rates—the elections have failed to offer a blueprint for change. Rather, Iranians can expect to see more of the same, although with more lip-service being paid to their daily struggles. Ahmedinejad has failed to meet his end of the bargain—he assumed power on a platform of putting the country’s oil windfalls on the people’s table—and instead has seen the costs of basic foodstuffs spiral. Whether Iranians hold their populist president to account may determine whether he will be able to serve a second term in office come 2009.
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