Election 2008: Presidential Race Tightens in Taiwan Following Tibet Fallout

The Race Narrows

The presidential race in Taiwan has narrowed in the run-up to the polls on Saturday (22 March) following fallout over the Chinese response to protests in the autonomous region of Tibet over the past week (see China: 17 March 2008: Widespread Unrest in Tibet Overshadows Re-Election of Chinese Political Elite). Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Frank Hsieh has moved towards closing the gap with his contender from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), Ma Ying-jeou, saying that the harsh Chinese crackdown in Tibet should be seen as a voice of warning regarding the KMT's proposals to increase integration with the mainland. The last opinion poll, conducted 11 days ago, showed Ma to command a substantial 20-percentage-point lead. However, this was before the Tibet crackdown involving massive deployments of Chinese security forces in response to protests led by monks. Ahead of the Tibet issue, pro-independence candidate Hsieh’s campaign has also warned that Ma’s campaign focus on creating "a one-China common market" will push Taiwan too closely towards reintegration with the mainland, raising concern that the island would lose its separate identity as a result.

Hsieh's Campaign: Ideology and Pragmatism Unite

Following his party’s drubbing in the January parliamentary polls, Hsieh adopted a pragmatic stance, appealing to middle-class voters through focusing on the economy and various social and environmental issues, as well as closer links to the mainland, on which Taiwan’s economy depends (see Taiwan: 14 January 2008: Opposition KMT Wins Taiwanese Parliamentary Polls by Landslide). He has thereby sought to distance himself from current president Chen Shui-bian, who has spearheaded a tough pro-independence campaign, including the abolition of the National Unification Council in February 2006, in turn angering Beijing. According to Yu Ching-hsin, director of the election study centre at National Chengchi University, cited by the Financial Times (FT), growing frustration among young and middle-class voters over the "DPP’s identity-based strategy and its ideological manipulations" was to be held accountable for its defeat in the parliamentary polls.

Pro-Independence Still on the Agenda

The focal point of Chen’s pro-independence agenda is the holding of a referendum on Taiwanese membership of the UN under its own name, which is to coincide with the presidential election. This is expected to stoke tension with mainland China if the vote comes out in favour of the pursuit of such an agenda, as such a move is considered to run counter to the "One-China" policy. China is, however, bent on a policy of moderation ahead of hosting the prestigious Olympic Games in August, while conveying that it is unwilling to tolerate any changes to the status quo. However, the referendum has in any case lost momentum amid widespread disbelief that Taiwan has a real chance of gaining membership of the UN after China has blocked such a move for the past 15 years. Learning from past experience, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, when wrapping up the country’s national parliamentary session this week, took a mild tone with Taiwan, holding up the prospects of growing business ties and "brotherhood", with harsh condemnations having backfired in the past.

The Economic Takes Centre Stage

Meanwhile, Hsieh’s campaign and interest in focusing on the economy, which remains the key concern for the general public, has naturally been tempered by the DPP’s opposition to comprehensive economic integration with the mainland. His economic agenda focuses on developing a prosperous economy, built on a foundation of a "golden triangle" of economic prosperity, sustainable development, and social justice. He has also joined Ma in tabling proposals for an expansion of trade with China, with the DPP having recently introduced several regulatory measures to prove its commitment to such an agenda (see Taiwan: 22 February 2008: Taiwanese Cabinet Proposes Lower Corporate Tax Ahead of Presidential Election). His policy agenda in the economic field has meanwhile fallen short of that of his contender, Ma, who has launched bolder plans for reviving Taiwan’s sluggish economy, with President Chen being widely blamed for neglect in this area due to his pro-independence measures having placed ideology over pragmatism in policy vis-à-vis China.

Ma’s Policy Agenda: "The 633 Plan"

The focal point of Ma’s policy agenda is his so-called 633 Plan, which seeks to achieve economic growth of 6%, a jobless rate of 3%, and per capita GDP of US$30,000, for which closer integration with China through "a one-China common market" would be integral. Additional measures include spending some T$4 trillion (US$130 billion) on 12 infrastructure projects before 2016. Ma’s plan has, however, been criticised for being overly optimistic, with economic growth having merely come to an average of 4.9% over the past five years as the world economy heads for a slowdown, with any attempts to lower the unemployment rate below 4% necessitating a significant boost to the services sector. As a high number of factories have moved their production outside Japan to low-cost emerging markets in Asia, government spending has fallen, with concerns mounting over a lack of jobs and growing income disparities. However, plans to integrate the Taiwanese economy more closely with that of the mainland would most certainly boost the economy. In comparison, Hong Kong saw its GDP grow by 7-8% following the signing of its trade pact with China in 2004.

Outlook and Implications

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