Parliament to Elect New Prime Minister in Pakistan

Yousuf Raza Gilani is expected to be elected Pakistan's 27th prime minister today by the 342-seat National Assembly, Pakistan's lower house of parliament, which is led by a coalition of the country's secular parties (see Pakistan: 22 February 2008: Pakistan's Secular Parties Agree to Form Coalition in New Parliament). Fifty-five-year-old Gilani, who was nominated by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) on Saturday (22 March), served as a parliamentary speaker under Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto during her second term from 1993 to 1996 and as a minister for health and housing during her first term from 1988 to 1990. He was also imprisoned for five years during President Pervez Musharraf's rule on corruption charges relating to granting 350 government jobs without following correct procedures and excessive use of telephones and cars during his tenure as speaker. The charges, which the PPP says were politically motivated, were dropped by Musharraf under an amnesty known as National Reconciliation Order, which was issued last October and permitted the return of PPP co-chair Asif Ali Zardari and Bhutto later in the month. Gilani's roots in Punjab province, Pakistan's political heartland, and close relationship with Zardari, with whom he was imprisoned, put him ahead of other PPP candidates for prime minister.

President Musharraf noted that this was the start of a "real democratic era" in Pakistan while speaking at the Pakistan Day military parade in capital Islamabad yesterday. He noted that "whichever new government is formed, it will have my full support". The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) party put forward Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, former chief minister of Punjab, as its candidate for prime minister. The new prime minister will be sworn in by Musharraf tomorrow.

Meanwhile, a report by the New York Times on Friday (21 March) stated that the heads of the two secular parties that have formed an alliance to lead the parliament—Zardari of the PPP and Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)—intend to open up negotiations with militant groups. This follows a string of attacks targeted at security forces. As many as 100 people were injured today when militants ignited 36 tankers in the town of Landikotal in the Khyber tribal district bordering Afghanistan. The 80 tankers in the town supply fuel for U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, five soldiers were killed and another dozen were injured in a suicide car bomb attack on a Pakistani army camp in Wana in the South Waziristan agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on 20 March. The attack came as U.S. vice-president Dick Cheney made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, where he noted that he expects the new, democratically elected government in Pakistan to be "good and effective friends and allies of the United States, just as the previous government has been". There were 50 suicide attacks in 2007 whereas there have been 17 suicide bombings in the first 10 weeks of 2008, which have killed 600 people. The New York Times claims that this surge in attacks was in retaliation for three strikes by Predator drones since the beginning of the year (see Pakistan: 1 February 2008: Senior Al-Qaida Commander Reportedly Killed by U.S. Airstrike in Pakistan).

Outlook and Implications

Gilani's appointment to the premiership will complete the domination by the country's secular party alliance of the parliament following last week's appointment of Fahmida Mirza to the post of parliamentary speaker (see Pakistan: 19 March 2008: First Female National Assembly Speaker Elected in Pakistan's Parliament). Gilani was nominated for the position of prime minister by the PPP over more senior PPP members, notably Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the vice-president of the PPP. This demonstrates the party's concerns over the fact that although it secured the most seats in the National Assembly, it was unable to secure the most seats in the provincial assembly in Punjab, Pakistan's political heartland. This province is led by Nawaz Sharif's PML-N. Although the PPP and PML-N have agreed to form a coalition government, the underlying mistrust in the relationship between both parties has fuelled the PPP's decision to field a candidate with his political base in Punjab. This will allow the PPP to balance the PML-N's influence in Punjab province as the PPP seeks to prevent a repeat of Nawaz Sharif's role while he was governor of Punjab province in destabilising the government of Benazir Bhutto.

Many have hailed the fact that Gilani will be the first PPP prime minister who is not from the Bhutto family, but this may be mere symbolism, given the fact that Zardari will likely pull the strings of the political process. Furthermore, if he secures a seat in the parliament after standing in by-elections in May, Zardari may come out of the shadows to take up the post of prime minister himself. Zardari was unable to stand in February's election because of pending corruption charges, which have been dropped (see Pakistan: 5 March 2008: Corruption Charges Against Head of Pakistan's Largest Secular Party Dropped). As such, Gilani may just be a caretaker prime minister keeping the seat warm for Zardari.

The most immediate concern is the pledge by Zardari and Sharif as part of the Murree Declaration to reinstate the 63 judges who were deposed by Musharraf during his state of emergency within 30 days (see Pakistan: 11 March 2008: Twin Suicide Bombings Hit Pakistani City as Secular Parties Agree to Reinstate Deposed Judges). If this occurs, the reinstated Supreme Court could rule on the validity of Musharraf's re-election as president in October 2007, his declaration of emergency rule in November 2007, and amendments to the constitution. This sets the stage for a showdown between Musharraf on the one hand and the new parliament and reinstituted judiciary on the other.

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