Election 2008: President Mugabe Faces Historic Challenges as Zimbabweans Prepare to Vote

Four presidential candidates will appear on the ballot box in Zimbabwe's election tomorrow: current president Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement Democratic Change (MDC), former finance minister and ZANU-PF politburo member Simba Makoni, and the little known Langton Towungana; the latter two will run as independents. The contest will principally be fought between Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Makoni. Candidates from ZANU-PF, the MDC, and independents will compete for 210 House of Assembly seats and 60 (out of 93) Senate seats. Approximately 5.9 million voters have registered to vote.

Free and Fair?

Aside from existing complaints about the run-up to tomorrow's elections, a poll published in the state-controlled Herald today will add to opposition fears that polling on the day will be rigged in the president's favour. The survey, conducted by the University of Zimbabwe and overseen by its head of political science, Joseph Kurebwa, has predicted that Mugabe will win 56-57% of the presidential vote, while Tsvangirai and Makoni will take 26-27% and 13-14%, respectively. In the House of Assembly, the survey projects 137 seats for ZANU-PF, 53 for Tsvangirai's faction of the MDC, 18 for Arthur Mutambara's faction of the MDC, and only two for independent candidates. Of the 60 Senate seats being contested, the survey predicts that ZANU-PF will win 41, MDC-Tsvangirai will take 13, with six for MDC-Mutambara. The Herald notes that a similar poll conducted by Kurebwa ahead of the 2005 legislative polls ended up being remarkably close to the eventual outcome. Both MDC and Makoni supporters will take this as an example—not in support for the president or the conservative ZANU-PF agenda, but as a pointer to the script that has already been written for these elections.

When speaking to the BBC, minister of indigenisation and empowerment Paul Mangwana was adamant that the elections would not be rigged and should an opposition candidate win the result would be respected. There are reasons for scepticism, however. Senior elements in the Zimbabwean security services have been explicit in their support for Mugabe and their opposition to any alternative. Zimbabwe defence forces commander Constantine Chiwenga warned earlier this month that he would not salute anyone other than Mugabe as president. The president himself has delivered strongly worded statements that the MDC will never be allowed to rule in Zimbabwe. Notably, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), which is responsible for administrating the process, is managed and populated by pro-ZANU-PF individuals for the most part, and in some cases former security service individuals. Moreover, the distribution of the 9,000 polling stations has been criticised for being skewed in favour of pro-Mugabe areas.

As is often said, an election is a process, not an event. That process has been criticised for a number of reasons, including the inequitable distribution of media coverage. The state media has given the vast majority of its political coverage to the president, and has been overwhelmingly positive. It is only over the past two weeks that the opposition has been able to advertise on television. Voter education by the ZEC has been insufficient, according to a number of observers, including Human Rights Watch. This is especially important given the recent redrawing of electoral boundaries. That said, the environment for political campaigning has apparently markedly improved. Opposition activists have been comparatively free to campaign in former no-go areas (see Zimbabwe: 20 March 2008: Election 2008: Zimbabwean Electoral Process Comes Under Heavy Fire)

Polling Day

Stepping away from the predictions of the University of Zimbabwe survey, there are reasons to believe that the president is facing significant challenges. According to the ZEC, the number of Zimbabweans registering to vote ahead of these polls increased tenfold after Makoni announced his candidacy. Anecdotal evidence also points to renewed interest in the democratic process and an opportunity to bring about much-needed change (e.g., high attendance at opposition rallies). With inflation rates growing to the point of surpassing 100,000% since the president introduced significant civil service pay rises, as well as eight consecutive years of economic contraction, there is an obvious source of demand for change.

Outlook and Implications

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