NATO Assumes World Policy Broker Role at Landmark Summit

The biggest summit in NATO's 60-year history kicks off today amid much media and security hype. The leaders of NATO's 26 existing members, the presidents of neighbouring states and powers concerned such as Russia and Afghanistan, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will have three days together to consolidate their understanding of the changing security environment in the world and work out joint responses to it. The summit agenda broadly falls into three categories: the intensification of military operations in Afghanistan; the NATO membership enlargement; responses to new security challenges.

Afghanistan Calling

U.S. President George W. Bush will call for the NATO members to increase their contribution to the 47,000-strong NATO force in Afghanistan. The United States itself maintains the biggest presence in the country, with 19,000 troops and further 14,000 soldiers outside NATO conducting counterinsurgency operations and training the Afghan army. The United States, United Kingdom and Canada have troops in the most dangerous zones in the country, and are getting increasingly bitter about the other European allies' keeping their contingents in the safer north and west. France is taking a step towards these countries as President Nicolas Sarkozy is expected to announce the deployment of 1,000 French troops in addition to the 1,400 already there. France's drive towards the trio may also see the country return to the NATO integrated military command in 2009 after more than four decades of staying away. The United States will also draw attention to the improvement of transport infrastructure in Central Asia and Europe for better logistical support to NATO forces in Afghanistan, something less controversial for the partners to decide upon. Even Russia has offered assistance with NATO flights to Afghanistan, in a gesture of support and good will. While being one of the most materially demanding, NATO's operation in Afghanistan is also a less controversial subject for its members than the Alliance's enlargement.

The More the Merrier?

It appears that the more members NATO has, the more worries this may cause to the organisation itself and its neighbours. Albania, Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) Macedonia are lining up to join the ranks of the organisation at the summit, while Ukraine and Georgia will be vying for a NATO membership invitation. Albania and Croatia are the only countries for whom the green light looks assured. FYR Macedonia, while having fulfilled all the security and military requirements, is facing a veto vote from Greece, which in what U.S. officials allegedly labelled "the world's stupidest major issue" demands that the country change its name. Greece, which has a province called Macedonia, feels an expansionist message in its neighbour's name, while FYR Macedonian politicians reject the pressure.

Even more contentious is the possible invitation for Ukraine and Georgia to a Membership Action Plan (MAP), a first step to NATO membership. Russia has come out forcefully against the idea, as despite it being 18 years since the end of the Cold War, NATO has an image in Russia of a hostile bloc and the principal source of danger. The Kremlin rather reasonably questions the security and military rationale for NATO expansion to its neighbours, something to which NATO itself has little to say. This is because NATO membership is indeed more of an ideological badge at the moment, something both parties realise, and Russia's bitterness at its former Soviet allies wearing the rival label is understandable. The Kremlin has the means to retaliate, too. While it has kept a dignified calm with the Kosovo declaration of independence, the Russian government warned that it would recognise Georgia's two breakaway provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia should NATO spread its wings to the country. While the United States is pushing for Ukraine and Georgia's NATO membership backed by Canada, the United Kingdom and some Eastern European countries, Western Europe, led by Germany and France, opposes the idea as likely to create more security threats rather than resolutions. Ironically, Western Europe has thus become Russia's ally on the enlargement issue, preferring reason to ideology. A membership invitation given such a difference of opinion is hence unlikely at this summit, and the U.S. president's visit to Ukraine yesterday looks like a moral compensation for the country's leadership aspiration to NATO.

What is Not a Security Threat?

In a move that would have seemed highly improbable 60 years ago, the NATO summit will also discuss the issues of energy security and ways to combat cyber crime, new areas for cooperation. While no major controversies are expected on this front, especially with regard to cyber issues, NATO's move to new fields signifies its growing role as a world policy forum.

Outlook and Implications

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