| |
NHTSA Outlines Interim Steps to Achieve 35 mpg by 2020
23 Apr 08
The U.S. presidential administration proposes to set the fleet average to 31.7 mpg by 2015, and offers a credit trading system.
Global Insight Perspective | | Significance | The U.S. Department of Transportation has issued its proposal for the interim requirements that automakers will need to meet on their way to the goal of 35 mpg by 2020. According to the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, combined fleet average will have to reach 31.7 mpg by 2015. | Implications | Of that average, the passenger car level will need to rise to 35.7 mpg, while light trucks will need to reach 28.6 mpg. The combined level is significantly above the 26.7 mpg average seen for the 2007 model year. | Outlook | The proposal is a step towards helping automakers refine their short-term product strategy, but much more work is still needed in order to determine how the new fuel economy ratings will be measured, especially given the increasing presence of alternative fuel powertrains. |
In what is being labelled the "Earth Day surprise" by the popular press, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released more details yesterday on what it is expecting the automakers to meet in terms of interim requirements on the road to the mandated 35 mpg fleet average by 2020. That law was passed by Congress last year and was signed into law by President George W. Bush in December, and is set to create a mandate for the average total fleet fuel economy for cars and trucks combined. But the new interim regulations released by NHTSA spells out the details of what must be met for the period of 2011-2015, as automakers begin changing technology and content in order to get to 35 mpg. The standards proposed by NHTSA require that the passenger car fleet achieve 35.7 mpg by 2015, with light trucks achieving 28.6 mpg, according to a report by the Detroit News. That would make the average fleet requirement by 2015 to be 31.7 mpg, significantly above the 26.7 mpg achieved for the market for the 2007 model year. The NHTSA has also proposed to create a credit system, whereby automakers can trade with each other for credits towards meeting those goals, should they find their averages to be under or over the required amounts. Credits can also be carried forward for up to five model years. To date however, no automakers have publicly expressed interest in such a trading system. "Our guys are going to do it, but it's not going to be easy," said Mike Stanton, top lobbyist at the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, a Washington group that represents many of the import nameplates that operate in the United States, according to the Detroit News. "You're going to see more hybrids, more diesels, more improvements in the gasoline engine to get there." General Motors (GM) was more upbeat about the prospects, releasing a brief statement late yesterday: "GM intends to meet the tough, new national CAFE standards of 35 mpg for cars and trucks combined by 2020, a dramatic increase of 40 percent. NHTSA's proposed rule lays out the first set of standards toward this target. GM will work with NHTSA throughout its rulemaking process on the yearly targets and the sensible mechanisms needed to meet this challenge." Outlook and Implications Despite the release of the latest round of requirements (likely to be aimed at trying to satiate California and the dozen or so states locked in a legal battle to set their own mileage and emissions requirements), much is still not yet determined as to the new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) mandates. While the 31.7 mpg combined requirement by 2015 will be difficult to meet (or at least expensive), it is not known how fuel economy is going to be measured. Vehicle size and dimensional attributes will now be used to determine fuel economy requirements and measurements, but no detail has been released beyond that. But as an increasing number of alternative fuel powertrains start to pop up for sale on the U.S. market, a comprehensive new method for measuring fuel economy will be required. For instance, how does one measure the fuel economy of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle? GM is expected to offer its first plug-in hybrid, a version of the Saturn Vue, sometime in the 2009 model year. But how does one measure the fuel consumption of a vehicle that could potentially run significant portions of its duty cycle on electrical power alone? Similarly, with many automakers looking long-term towards the electrification of the automobile, new rules will certainly have to be put in place to accommodate those vehicles. GM's E-Flex system, for example, currently set to debut sometime in late 2010 (according to the company), should offer up to 40 miles of mixed-road cruising range on electric-only power before kicking in the gasoline (petrol) engine—which is only used to recharge the batteries, and not drive the vehicle directly. If the vehicle is operated within that 40-mile range continuously, and is recharged from a ground-based source after every use, it could theoretically never use a drop of fuel in its lifetime. How to measure the efficiency of such a vehicle, especially when the production of such vehicles would count towards GM's overall fleet averages, becomes crucial.
|
|
|
